WMO Climate Update (2020-2024)

Photo: Global Warming, Image by marian anbu juwan from Pixabay
1. Annual global temperature is likely to warm at least by 1° C (very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C) than preindustrial levels (1850-1900 average) from 2020 to 2024 

2. One of the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer is unlikely (~20% chance) than preindustrial levels, but the chance is increasing with time

3. One or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels is likely( ~70 % chance) 

4. Five year mean temperature for 2020-2024 will be warmer by 1.5°C than preindustrial levels is very unlikely (~3% chance) 

5. Large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past (1981-2010 average) in 2020 

6. Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean in 2020 

7. Smallest temperature change is expected in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere 

8. Many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent past in 2020 

9. Almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans are likely to be warmer than the recent past over 2020-2024 

10.High latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer over 2020-2024 

11.Sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that the northern North Atlantic region could have stronger westerly winds leading to more storms in western Europe over 2020-2024

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