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| Source: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity |
1. Climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss and ecosystem change by 2050. Global temperature increases of 0.4 to 2.6°C by 2055 and 0.3 to 4.8 °C by 2090 would be accompanied by rising sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, substantial loss of summer Arctic sea ice and increasing ocean acidification.
2. Demand for fertile land is projected to increase substantially by 2050. The combination of expanded agriculture and bioenergy in business as usual scenarios could result in a global land squeeze in which there is not sufficient room to conserve natural terrestrial habitats, leading to large declines in biodiversity.
3. Many wild fisheries are likely to collapse and large increases in global fish production foreseen for 2050 are projected to come primarily from aquaculture. This rapid expansion raises a variety of concerns including pollution, increased demand for high protein feed and competition for land or coastal areas.
4. Global water withdrawals from freshwater systems are projected to nearly double by 2050 in most business as usual scenarios. This would result in reduced water flow for freshwater ecosystems, which are highly dependent on water flow to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Water for food production currently accounts for 84% of global water consumption and dominates projected future global water consumption.
5. Combinations of drivers could push some systems beyond tipping points at regional scales by 2050. Degradation of coral reefs due to combinations of pollution, destructive fishing, invasive alien species, ocean acidification and global warming, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice due to global warming could cause substantial disruption of social-ecological systems.
6. Moreover, degradation of the Amazonian tropical humid forest due to combinations of deforestation, use of fire and global warming, and collapse of some tropical fisheries due to combinations of overfishing, pollution, sea level rise and global warming.
| Source: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2014) Global Biodiversity Outlook 4. Montréal, 155 pages. Available@ https://www.cbd.int/gbo4/ |
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