Tom Evslin: The complexities of climate change

1. Science is not done by consensus; breakthroughs usually struggle against the fashionable consensus. The consensus is especially suspect at a time when our universities are enmeshed in political correctness.

2. Speed of temperature increase is largely dependent on the amount of greenhouse gasses (GHG) in the atmosphere and the increase will slow or stop if GHG emissions are drastically reduced.

3. Speed of temperature increase is largely dependent on the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere whereas the level of GHG emissions is already so high that temperatures rises even if emissions cut drastically.

4. Speed of temperature increase is largely dependent on natural causes, and the warming cycle continues for a long time no matter what we do.

5. Speed of temperature increase is largely dependent on natural causes; but the warming cycle is almost over so there’s nothing to worry about.

6. If #2 is mainly true then real decarbonization effort is required that means not just virtue-signaling like carbon offsets but also rapid development of carbon-free energy sources like nuclear and hydro as well as wind, solar, and energy storage.

7. If #3 or #4 is true then resources must go to mitigating the effect of rising sea level and preparing for mass migrations. Even cheap fossil fuels help provide resources for this effort. What’s indubitably true is that too many people live dangerously close to the sea even if it only rises during storms.

8. If #5 is true then free pass for business as usual and renewables should compete in the marketplace with fossil fuels and people be helped out of poverty and hunger as fast as possible.

9. The existential threat of climate change is exacerbated when we switch from science to propaganda in order to get people to act the way we think they ought to.

10. The effort on education should be in science and natural history rather than just teaching to protest what they don’t understand.

(Original Source: https://vtdigger.org/2019/08/11/tom-evslin-the-complexities-of-climate-change/ )


Comments