CLIMATE CHANGE DIARY

Nepal and Green Economy

2011-09-29T07:38:00.000-07:00

Nepal is a small landlocked mountainous country located between China to the north and India to the east, west and south, with a total land area of 147,181 square kilometers. The elevation of the country increases from about 60 meters in the south to 8848 meters in the north at the peak of Mt. Everest.

According to preliminary result of the National Population Census 2011 released by Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) among the higher government officials, development partners and media, the population of Nepal reached 26,620,809 in the year 2011 which shows an increase of population at the rate of 1.4 percent per annum. According to the National Population Census 2001, the population growth rate of Nepal was 2.25 percent per annum.. GDP of Nepal at factor cost for the year 2001/02 is estimated at US$ 5446.4 million and annual per Capita GDP for the fiscal year is estimated at US$ 224 (recent). Nepal's urban population is expanding, thereby putting pressures on natural resources, especially in and around urban areas. Waste disposal and its associated health hazards are other serious concerns linked to the growing urban population.

Nepal is confronting adversity of climate change and towering food prices due to limited facility and resources to address these global problems. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy, providing a livelihood for over 80 % of the population.

In Nepal, low-carbon, labor-intensive agriculture and community managed forestry are sustainable practices that have existed for decades which are components in greening the country. According to the UN report entitled "Why a Green Economy Matters for the Least Developed Countries" states that Nepal’s approach to community forestry management continues to generate employment and income from the sustainable harvesting of timber and non-timber forest products. Sustainable forest management approaches in the country have contributed to reverse a trend of decline in forest cover that occurred at the rate of 1.9 per cent per year during the 1990s. Nepal’s forests have witnessed an annual growth of 1.35 per cent over the period 2000 to 2005 thanks to community based approaches of forest conservation.

Recently, three watersheds in Dolakha, Gorkha and Chitwan districts received a total sum of $95,000 under the first-ever Forest Carbon Trust Fund (FCTF) in Nepal. The project focuses on sequestering carbon through community-based forest management. The project financed by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD) covers over 10,000 hectares of community managed forest and has an outreach to cover 16,000 households with over 89,000 forest dependent people.

There are a number of policy issues and gaps that need to be addressed to enable communities to receive benefits from carbon financing. While pilot initiatives are required to develop models of REDD at sub-national and local levels, several policy issues have to be addressed before a carbon financing mechanism can be initiated: clarifying carbon tenure and benefit sharing, creating or defining state agencies for regulating carbon financing mechanisms, recognizing and monitoring intermediaries (to verify, assess, quantify carbon stocks and offsets), and mechanisms for checking fraud and corruption. There are also likely to be implications for fiscal, tax and trade related policies, which need to be addressed.

Looking at these issues at home, and recognizing the specific Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) series being debated internationally, Nepal should not just rely on carbon focused financing but advocate a comprehensive reward package that supports policy, institutions, procedures and sustainable management of forests. Also, it is worthwhile to institute systems for the payment of environmental services instead of carbon services alone. Nepal has a real opportunity to lead other countries with strong community forestry and to advance such an agenda in the international negotiations.

-------------A very short paper on Green Economy-------------

Abstract: Study of altitudinal variations of snow line in Koshi basin of Nepal using multi- temporal MODIS and AWiFS data

2011-08-31T23:11:00.000-07:00

Figure1:Geographical region showing Koshi basin

Koshi basin covers eastern part of Nepal and geographically locatedin the central Himalayan region(figure1).The northern part of the Koshi basinhas high altitude region. This highaltitude region remains covered with snow during months of October to May/Juneof consecutive year. This region also has few glaciers which also remain underblanket of snow during these months. The snow line rises high from July onwardsup to approximately the end of September before the fresh snowfall. Thebehaviour of snowline is dependent on the prevailing weather conditions of thebasin. In view of the climate change scenario, it has been attempted to studythe altitudinal variations of the snow line during peak accumulation andablation period. For this purpose snow cover products from MODIS sensor(figure 2)have been utilized. A series of snow coverproducts were superimposed on the SRTM DEM data(figure 3). The altitude ofsnowline were noted. The lowest altitude in the accumulation season and highest altitude in the ablation seasonhave been considered as the key parameters. The observations have alsocorrelated with MODIS-LST products. Fora few cases, AWiFS data also has been used. NDSI based algorithmis utilised toextract snow cover from AWiFSdata. This study provides a new approach forclimate change studies using altitudinal variations in snow line as indicator.

Figure2: MODIS Snow cover product of Koshi basin

Figure3: SRTM image covering Koshi basin

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:

I, Sami Kunwar, want to acknowledge

Project Guide-Dr. I.M. Bahuguna and Shri Sushil K Singh, SAC(ISRO), Ahmedabad, India

Course Director-Dr. B.M. Rao

Advisors- Shri B.P. Rathod and Ms. Rupal Brahmbhatt

Thimphu Statement on Climate Change (2010)

2010-05-04T04:14:00.000-07:00

I. Review the implementation of the Dhaka Declaration and SAARC Action Plan on Climate Change and ensure its timely implementation;

II. Agree to establish an Inter-governmental Expert Group on Climate Change to develop clear policy direction and guidance for regional cooperation as envisaged in the SAARC Plan of Action on Climate Change;

III. Direct the Secretary General to commission a study for presentation to the Seventeenth SAARC Summit on ‘Climate Risks in the Region: ways to comprehensively address the related social, economic and environmental challenges’;

IV. Undertake advocacy and awareness programs on climate change, among others, to promote the use of green technology and best practices to promo te low-carbon sustainable and inclusive development of the region;

V. Commission a study to explore the feasibility of establishing a SAARC mechanism which would provide capital for projects that promote low-carbon technology and renewable energy; and a Low-carbon Research and Development Institute in South Asian University;

VI. Incorporate science-based materials in educational curricula to promote better understanding of the science and adverse effects of climate change;

VII. Plant ten million trees over the next five years (2010-2015) as part of a regional aforestation and reforestation campaign, in accordance with national priorities and programmes of Member States;

VIII. Evolve national plans, and where appropriate regional projects, on protecting and safeguarding the archeological and historical infrastructure of South Asia from the adverse effects of Climate Change;

IX. Establish institutional linkages among national institutions in the region to, among others, facilitate sharing of knowledge, information and capacity building programmes in climate change related areas;

X. Commission a SAARC Inter-governmental Marine Initiative to strengthen the understanding of shared oceans and water bodies in the region and the critical roles they play in sustainable living to be supported by the SAARC Coastal Zone Management Center;

XI. Stress the imperative of conservation of bio-diversity and natural resources and monitoring of mountain ecology covering the mountains in the region;

XII. Commission a SAARC Inter-governmental Mountain Initiative on mountain ecosystems, particularly glaciers and their contribution to sustainable development and livelihoods to be supported by SAARC Forestry Center;

XIII. Commission a SAARC Inter-governmental Monsoon Initiative on the evolving pattern of monsoons to assess vulnerability due to climate change to be supported by SAARC Meteorological Research Center;

XIV. Commission a SAARC Inter-governmental Climate-related Disasters Initiative on the integration of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) with Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) to be supported by SAARC Disaster Management Center;

XV. Complete the ratification process for the SAARC Convention on Cooperation on Environment at an early date to enable its entry into force; and

XVI. The Inter-governmental Expert Group on Climate Change shall meet at least twice a year to periodically monitor and review the implementation of this Statement and make recommendations to facilitate its implementation and submit its report through the Senior Officials of SAARC to the SAARC Environment Ministers;

SOURCE:
Thimphu Statement on Climate Change issued at the 16th SAARC Summit, 29 April 2010
(Link: http://saarc-sec.org/)

Transformation of Earth:7 Tipping Points

2009-12-25T03:58:00.001-08:00

1.Polar Sea Ice

Dwindling Arctic sea ice and crumbling Antarctic ice sheets are now a common sight. Whether they signal an impending tip, with rapid melts causing Earth’s seas to inundate heavily-populated coastal plains, is debated. The process appears to accelerate itself: Warming ice melts, which exposes darker areas, causing local temperatures to rise further. But in the Arctic, another feedback may stabilize the ice (Notz, 2009). Though most of the ice “will disappear during summer,” much of it will re-freeze in the winter. Arctic sea ice loss “is likely to be reversible if the climate were to become cooler again.” But Notz is less optimistic about Antarctic sea ice, its undersides heated by eddying Southern Ocean currents. And the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have shrunk suddenly at least twice in the last several million years, a behavior that’s backed up by climate models. It’s “well possible that a tipping point exists for a possible collapse” for those sheets, wrote Notz. It could “render the loss of ice sheets and the accompanying sea-level rise unstoppable beyond a certain amount of warming.”

2.Amazon Rain-forest

As one of Earth’s great carbon sinks, the replacement of Amazon jungles with savannah or forest would drastically accelerate global warming. On their own, rising temperatures and changing weather patterns would not trigger jungle dieback (Malhi, 2009). But deforestation combined with intensified dry seasons leaves forests vulnerable to fire, producing more weather-altering deforestation. According to the report, the dieback of the forests of East Amazonia in the 21st century is far from inevitable but remains a distinct possibility.

3.Bodélé Depression, Chad

Winds whipping across the Bodélé, a 10,000 square mile Saharan plain covered by ancient lakebed sediments, carry 700,000 tons of dust into the atmosphere annually. It floats around the world, blocking sunlight and lowering temperatures in some regions, and causing rain and warming in others. Saharan dust influences Atlantic ecosystems, Caribbean coral reefs and the Amazon. Its full effects are unknown. According to Richard Washington, a specialist in African weather African weather specialist at Oxford University, small atmospheric changes could profoundly alter the behavior of this feature. At one point in the last 10,000 years, dust ceased to flow altogether from the Bodélé. That doesn’t seem to be our problem. Although subject to a great deal of uncertainty, some simulations of the 21st century indicate the potential for a substantial increase in dust production (Washington et al, 2009).

4.South Asian Monsoons

Hundreds of millions of people depend on regular monsoon rains to nourish their crop, but the monsoons are historically capricious. In what is now India and China, they’ve have changed abruptly several times since the Last Ice Age ended. According to Levermann et al, 2009, the monsoon systems amplify themselves i.e. rainfall releases heat, fueling winds that pull more moisture from the seas, producing more rainfall. Small changes can swell monsoons, or nip them in the bud. The model is limited, but its simulations track with history. “We have a long paleorecord for precipitation, and you see that there was almost a switch. The monsoon was either on, or it was off, with very little in between,” said Levermann. Climate change can flip the switch, but it’s not the only cause. “If you turn a forest into a desert, it reflects more sunlight and makes it cooler. Strong air pollution reflects sunlight, and can trigger an event. Both exist in Indian and Chinese regions.”

5.The Gulf Stream

Formally known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, or AMOC, the Gulf Stream starts in the Gulf of Mexico and follows the eastern contour of North America before flowing to northern Europe and western Africa. Sudden slowdowns in the circulation occurred repeatedly during the last Ice Age. They were associated with large and abrupt changes in surface climate (Hofmann and Rahmstorf, 2009). Argument exists over whether slowdowns are primarily wind-driven, or could be caused by an influx of fresh water from melting ice sheets. In its last report, the IPCC put the risk of Gulf Stream slowdown during the 21st century at 10 percent. The true figure could be higher, or lower. Model deficiencies make a risk assessment for AMOC changes very difficult at present and require urgent research attention (Hofmann and Rahmstorf, 2009).

6.Seafloor Methane

Between 700 trillion and 10,000 trillion tons of methane hydrate, a powerful greenhouse gas, are trapped in the seafloor sediments where they’ve accumulated over millions of years. If the planet heats by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, well within the range of warming possible if greenhouse gas pollution levels remain high, seafloors could heat enough to release a small but significant fraction of the gases. Methane bubbling slowly into the atmosphere could raise planetary temperatures by a full degree Fahrenheit for as much as 10,000 years. According to researchers led by University of Chicago geoscientist David Archer, methane-caused warming would persist even if fossil fuel emissions subsided.“The modeling of methane hydrate is frankly in its infancy,” but it seems “robust to conclude” that mankind could “melt a significant fraction of the methane hydrates in the ocean,” they wrote

7.The Future

“What features establish the identity of a face; what distortions erase that identity beyond recognition?” asked Hans Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research and climate change advisor to German chancellor Angela Merkel. By Earth’s face, Schellnhuber means the environmental conditions that prevailed for most of the last several thousand years. If there’s one dominant theme to the tipping element reviews, it’s that Earth’s face is prone to what he calls “singular transformations.” They’ve happened before. Whether they will happen again, with mankind on board, is the “cardinal question of earth systems analysis [and] sustainability science,” wrote Schellnhuber. How admittedly uncertain models should influence international climate policy is an open question. Levermann counsels caution. “If you entered a plane and the captain said into the speaker, ‘There’s a 10 percent chance this plane will crash,’ you wouldn’t stay in it,” said Levermann. “This is the framework we have to think about when we talk about tipping elements.”

Citations: “Tipping elements in the Earth System.” By Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106 No. 49, December 8, 2009

Copenhagen Accord:Main Points

2009-12-20T00:16:00.001-08:00

Emissions targets

To“reduce global emissions so as to hold the increase in globaltemperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet thisobjective consistent with science and on the basis of equity”.
To“cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national emissions assoon as possible, recognizing that the time frame for peaking will belonger in developing countries”.
Developed countries are toimplement individual or joint quantified targets for emissionsreduction by 2020, to both 1990 and 2005 base years, and publish themby January 31, 2010.
Developing nations are to publish their emissions curbing commitments by January 31 2010.

MRV
Developing nations’ action onemissions will undergo only domestic measurement, reporting andverification but will be subject to internationally-agreed standardsunder the UN climate convention. They would then communicateinternationally progress on their commitments every two years.

REDD
On deforestation, there should be the “immediate establishment of a mechanism includingREDD-plus” to mobilise capital from developed countries for “reducingemissions from deforestation and forest degradation” and enhancing“removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests”.

Financing

Developed countriesare to “support a goal of mobilizing jointly 100 billion dollars a yearby 2020 to address the needs of developing countries”. This funding willcome from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral andmultilateral, including alternative sources of finance.
Therewill also be 30 billion dollars made available over the three-yearperiod 2010 to 2012 inclusive, balanced between climate changeadaptation and emissions mitigation.
A new UNFCCC mechanismcalled the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund will be established to supportfunded “projects, programmes, policies” on mitigation, REDD-plus,adaptation, capacity building, technology development and transfer.

Technology transfer
Anew Technology Mechanism will also be established to further acceleratetechnology development and transfer under a country-by-countryapproach.

2015 review
A review of theCopenhagen Accord’s progress must be completed by 2015, and would alsoconsider “strengthening the long-term goal to limit the increase inglobal average temperature to 1.5 degrees”.

SOURCE: http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/application/pdf/cop15_cph_auv.pdf

UP TO SIX DEGREES OF WARMING

2009-10-29T23:51:00.000-07:00

If global warming continues at the current rate, we could be facing extinction. So what exactly is going to happen as the Earth heats up? Here is a degree-by-degree guide as stated by Mark Lynas in his non-fiction book  "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet" 

1 °C IncreaseIce-free sea absorbs more heat and accelerates global warming; fresh water lost from a third of the world's surface; low-lying coastlines flooded

Chance of avoiding one degree of global warming: zero.

2 °C IncreaseEuropeans dying of heatstroke; forests ravaged by fire; stressed plants beginning to emit carbon rather than absorbing it; a third of all species face extinction

Chance of avoiding two degrees of global warming: 93%, but only if emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced by 60% over the next 10 years.

3 °C IncreaseCarbon release from vegetation and soils, speeds global warming; death of the Amazon rainforest; super-hurricanes hit coastal cities; starvation in Africa

Chance of avoiding three degrees of global warming: poor if the rise reaches two degrees and triggers carbon-cycle feedbacks from soils and plants.

4 °C IncreaseRunaway thaw of permafrost makes global warming unstoppable; much of Britain made uninhabitable by severe flooding; Mediterranean region abandoned

Chance of avoiding four degrees of global warming: poor if the rise reaches three degrees and triggers a runaway thaw of permafrost.

5 °C IncreaseMethane from ocean floor accelerates global warming; ice gone from both poles; humans migrate in search of food and try vainly to live like animals off the land

Chance of avoiding five degrees of global warming: negligible if the rise reaches four degrees and releases trapped methane from the sea bed.

6 °C IncreaseLife on Earth ends with apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide gas and methane fireballs racing across the globe with the power of atomic bombs; only fungi survive

Chance of avoiding six degrees of global warming: zero if the rise passes five degrees, by which time all feedbacks will be running out of control

SOURCE:Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, by Mark Lynas (2007/08)

2009-10-07T22:16:00.000-07:00

SIX KEY MESSAGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

KEY MESSAGE 1:
CLIMATIC TRENDS
Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

KEY MESSAGE 2:
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DISRUPTION
The research community provides much information to support discussions on “dangerous climate change”. Recent observations show that societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2oC will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond.

KEY MESSAGE 3:
LONG-TERM STRATEGY: GLOBAL TARGETS AND TIMETABLES
Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid “dangerous climate change” regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious impacts, including the crossing of tipping points, and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult and costly. Setting a credible long-term price for carbon and the adoption of policies that promote energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies are central to effective mitigation.

KEY MESSAGE 4:
EQUITY DIMENSIONS
Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human societies and the natural world. An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of coping with climate change impacts, and equitable mitigation strategies are needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable. Tackling climate change should be seen as integral to the broader goals of enhancing socioeconomic development and equity throughout the world.

KEY MESSAGE 5:
INACTION IS INEXCUSABLE
Society already has many tools and approaches – economic, technological, behavioural, and managerial – to deal effectively with the climate change challenge. If these tools are not vigorously and widely implemented, adaptation to the unavoidable climate change and the societal transformation required to decarbonise economies will not be achieved. A wide range of benefits will flow from a concerted effort to achieve effective and rapid adaptation and mitigation. These include job growth in the sustainable energy sector; reductions in the health, social, economic and environmental costs of climate change; and the repair of ecosystems and revitalisation of ecosystem services.

KEY MESSAGE 6:
MEETING THE CHALLENGE
If the societal transformation required to meet the climate change challenge is to be achieved, then a number of significant constraints must be overcome and critical opportunities seized. These include reducing inertia in social and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; reducing activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions and reduce resilience (e.g. subsidies); and enabling the shifts from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society. Linking climate change with broader sustainable consumption and production concerns, human rights issues and democratic values is crucial for shifting societies towards more sustainable development pathways.

Source: http://climatecongress.ku.dk

Abstract::TRACING WINTER-CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR THE KATHMANDU VALLEY

2009-06-14T10:31:00.002-07:00

TRACING WINTER-CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO
FOR THE KATHMANDU VALLEY
By
SAMI KUNWAR
(samikunwar@gmail.com)
Supervisor:
Prof. Dr. Lochan Pd. Devkota
Head
Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
Tribhuvan University

Abstract

Change in local climate of Kathmandu has already been reported in national media. Scientific analysis of climatic indicators is important to confirm the public perceptions. This study attempts to fill the gap by analyzing the rainfall and temperature data of the Valley with a focus on winter season.

As a part of this study, temperature and rainfall data were analyzed. The key findings include increased number of hotter days and decreased number as well as volume of rainy days in winter months (December to February). Incidentally, this year's winter months (December 2008 through February 2009) remained total dry. Though there are rare incidents of this type of severe and longer drought in the history, this one is the second in three years. There is wide belief that such a frequent drought of this scale is the result of climate change. However, defining change in climatic pattern requires analysis of minimum of 30 years of data or more.

Annual temperature growth trend of Kathmandu is already established but the fact that the higher rate of temperature growth of winter season is rarely discussed. In this ground this study is significant in the ground that winter temperature growth in Kathmandu Airport station is statistically significant. Decreased amount of rains or absence of rains throughout winter has been noticed as a cause behind this sharp rise of winter temperature.

In Kathmandu Valley, the winter of 1998/99 was the hottest winter of 20th century with average of 12.26 °C. Normally, the central Valley receives about 33 mm of winter rainfall, while the southern slopes receive over 55 mm in winter. The high hill around the Valley received snowfall on 14th February 2007 first time after 62 years. This event has indicated that extreme events in weather are already experienced in Kathmandu as an effect of climate change.

With the increased frequency of extreme weather events, exposure of the Valley residents has increased significantly for two reasons. First, the alarming growth of Valley population is already coping with serious water shortage problem. The consecutive drought like conditions throughout winter has exacerbated the situation. Therefore the Valley is highly vulnerable to climate change. Unless there is an implementable plan of climate change adaptation, the future of the Valley will be very stressful through water management point of view. To this purpose, adoption of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) is essential to address the challenge.

Key Words: Climate Change; Water Resources; Kathmandu; Temperature; Rainfall

Alarming Risk Management to reduce Climate Change Vulnerability

2009-05-22T00:08:00.000-07:00

Dramatically in recent years, disaster occurrence and losses associated with extreme and less extreme climate events have increased. Whilst numerous of the rising examples of disaster risk are allied with natural hazards that illustrate no tendency to increases in magnitude and recurrence, human interventions in the natural environment are creating new socio-natural hazards, primarily associated with climate events. In various incidences of new flooding, landslide, drought, forest fire and coastal erosion, environmental degradation has altered natural resources into new hazards. At the same time, the social, economic, regional, physical and political vulnerability of populations continues to deteriorating their capacity to absorb the impact of, and recover from extreme climatic events.

Rapidly increasing levels of disaster losses are beginning to overshadow development growth in countries like Nepal. Nowadays, it is clear that flawed development and environmental practices are at the root of much of the new disaster risk. The areas such as poverty reduction, health and education of the UN Millennium Development Goals will be impossible to achieve unless rigorous efforts are made to manage and lessen the disaster risks related with possible climatic events.

Different scientific records have proved that climate change due to enhanced greenhouse gas emissions is incontrovertible and is evenly well accepted that climate change will alter the severity, frequency and spatial distribution of climate related hazards. Now, there is clear scientific consensus that human–induced climate change is underway and will worsen. The extent of change will be determined by how much more greenhouse pollution we put in the atmosphere. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)2007) report of the world’s most authoritative body of climate scientists confirmed that temperatures have already risen 0.76 degrees centigrade over the past century and is “very likely” (more than a 90% probability) that most of this global warming was due to increased greenhouse gases from human activity. We have experienced eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years on record. Similarly, mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres and there is a widespread decrease in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea level rise. At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed including changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. The temperature is projected to increase further during the 21st Century. The extent of change will be determined by how much more greenhouse pollution we put in the atmosphere. Under a low emissions pathway, temperature will rise a further 1.1 to 2.9°C. Under a high emissions pathway, temperature will rise a further 2.4 to 6.4°C by 2090.In case of Nepal, the mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.3 to 3.8°C by the 2060s, and 1.8 to 5.8°C by the 2090s, and projections of mean annual rainfall averaged the country from different models in the ensemble are broadly consistent in indicating increases in rainfall.

Due to global climate change rapid and turbulent changes in risk patterns in a given region are rarely autonomously generated and may, in numerous cases, be caused by economic decisions taken on the other side of the globe. This territorial complexity of causal factors extends down to include the impacts of national, sectoral and territorial development policies on regions and localities. Gradually and impulsively, human beings have been adapting to the variations in climate but the rapid growth of climatic risk in recent decades resulting effective losses and even interrupting in spontaneous adaptation although the processes of global change are adding new and even more intractable dimensions to the problems of risk accumulation and disaster occurrence and loss, associated with climatic events. As the range of hazards and vulnerabilities faced by any specified community increases, it often becomes probable only to play one kind of risk scenario off against another in search of a less awful scenario. The processes of global change have stacked the odds even higher against successful adaptation. As the fundamental processes of risk become increasingly global, the alternatives available to local communities and other local stakeholders to influence risk generation processes becomes restricted, if not absent.

Atypical practices to manage and lessen climate related risks have been endeavored by the humanitarian, development, environmental and climate change communities. From early 70s the discourse within the broader disaster risk management community has undergone a gradual paradigm transfer from response to improved response preparedness to hazard mitigation to vulnerability reduction to integrated disaster risk management. The risk conscious community has attempted to promote more integrated schemes wherever risk considerations are featured into development programs and the environmental society has increasingly seen the significance of environmental management and good resource use for hazard control and attenuation.

On the other hand, regardless of the awareness raised by the UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) in the 1990’s, disaster risks have continued to mount up. Fundamentally, nearly all national and international efforts continue to focus on preparedness and response. Most of the successful experiences of different risk management approaches were piloted have built up a substantial body of knowledge on the theory and practice of risk management in Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa. If these stories were to be mainstreamed and applied as part of an integrated program then they provide a sight into the future of risk management. In the same way, the scientists and organizations investigating the difficulty of global climate change have progressively expanded their approach from an initial anxiety with the causes of climate change, through a concern with modeling its potential effects. For instance, in terms of sea level rise and desertification, towards a concern with how societies and economies can adapt to changing climatic circumstances. In program terms, this has led, on the one hand, to international efforts, through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to mitigate climate change through reduction of green house gas emissions and on the other hand to the assessment of countries’ vulnerabilities to climate change and the plan of adaptation strategies. In recent years, there has been an increasing pledge to and stress on adaptation rather than just mitigation. Similarly, as the disaster risk management community has failed in practice to significantly move beyond response and preparedness, the climate change community has not yet been able to move beyond fairly theoretical formulations of vulnerability and adaptation, towards concrete plans and program of action.

In Nepal adaptation to climate change and disaster risk management are promoting by totally separate institutional systems. The efforts to plan strategies to adapt societies to the effects of climate change and national and international efforts to manage the disaster risks linked with extreme climate events remain fundamentally detached. At the global level, a search for interaction between objectives and institutional frameworks has been sought with regard to the United Nations’ Environmental Conventions on wetlands, biodiversity, climate change and desertification.

Until and unless, the nation lack capacity to manage and adapt to climate related risks and is already a crucial development concern of the country. And the lack of capacity to manage the risks associated with current climate variability (on a seasonal and annual basis) is the same that will hold back countries from tackling the future increment in the complication and vagueness of risk due to global climate change. In a way, the entire potential of the future already exists like a seed in the present moment. Strengthening national and local capacities to handle climate-related risks is the best strategy to be able to manage additional complexity of climate risk in the future. It is also more feasible to manage an existing risk scenario by mobilizing national and international political and financial resources rather than addressing a hypothetical future scenario. Mid-term and long-term adaptation must initiate now with efforts to improve current risk management and adaptation. Lessons learnt from current practices along with the conception that learning comes from doing are of critical importance.

In above circumstances, integrated climate risk management would facilitates to address both the hazards and vulnerabilities which arrange particular risk scenarios and would sort in scale from actions to manage the local signs of global climate risk, through to global measures to reduce hazard by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, for example and to reduce vulnerability, for example, like in case of small island developing states (SIDS) by increasing the social and economic resilience. Integrated climate risk management would need to include elements of defensive risk management (ensuring that future development reduces rather than increases risk), compensatory risk management (actions to mitigate the losses associated with existing risk) and reactive risk management (ensuring that risk is not reconstructed after disaster events). Moreover, it will have to take into account both potential impacts on socio-economic and environmental systems. Integrated climate risk management could provide a framework to let the disaster community to move ahead of the still dominant focus on preparedness and response and for the adaptation to climate change community to move beyond the aim of hypothetical future adaptation strategies. In some countries synergy such as this is already being achieved.

In Nepal, it were accepted that most disaster risk is climate related and that adaptation must refer to the management of existing climate related risks which incorporates elements of and builds on existing frameworks for addressing climate change, disaster reduction, desertification and others. Such a framework needs to start from a clear concept that climate related risk is one of the central development issues of our time and the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDG) will not be possible unless climate related risks are significantly managed and reduced. The current proliferation of parallel international frameworks and programming mechanisms for addressing what is a holistic development issue is counterproductive if the objective is to strengthen national capacities to manage and reduce climate related risks.

At the local level, integrated climate risk management strategies, plans and program need to be built on the dispersed institutional and administrative mechanisms, projects, human and financial resources currently applied to disaster risk management as well as adaptation to climate change and other related areas such as desertification. The country should develop new programming mechanisms and tools to promote integrated national climate risk management program as well as resource mobilization strategies to ensure that such program can be adequately funded.

Eventually, integrated climate risk management needs to take root at the local level. Most climate related disaster events are small to medium scale and have spatially delimited local impacts. Ultimately, risk is manifested and losses occur at the local level and it is at this level that national and international support to integrated climate risk management has to be realized and capacities strengthened. Concurrently, scaling up needs to occur given the diverse regional base of risk causation.
Climate related risk, provoked by process of global economic and climatic change poses a fundamental uncertain development issue for Nepal. Unless such risks can be managed and reduced the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals will be a vision only.

Existing approaches towards managing disaster risk and adaptation to climate change fail to address the issue for different reasons. The first is still predominantly focused on response to disaster events and fails to address the configuration of hazards, vulnerabilities and risks. Furthermore, mono-hazard approaches exist in contexts more and more exemplified by concatenation, synergy and complexity and there is a great deal to do in order to bring risk management and sustainable development concerns and practices together. The second focuses on the impact of future climate change on risk but fails to make the relation with currently existing climate related risk events and patterns. Simultaneously, both approaches are separated both in concept and in terms of the institutional arrangements and programming mechanisms at the local and national levels.

If development is to be guarded and advanced in areas affected by climate risks, an integrated approach to climate risk management needs to be promoted, building on successful approaches piloted by the disaster risk management community but mainstreamed in to national strategies and programs. Addressing and managing climate risk as it is manifested in extreme events and impacts in the here and now is the most appropriate way of strengthening capacities to deal with changing climate in the future.

By:SAMI KUNWAR

About Meteorology

2008-10-04T23:02:00.000-07:00

Meteorology is the science of the atmosphere. It takes its name from the Greek word meteoron-something that happens high in the sky. The ancient Greeks observed clouds, winds, and rain and tried to understand how they are connected to one another. The weather was important in their relatively simple society because it affected the farmers who raised their food and their seamen who sailed the oceans. Today, our complex society and our environment are affected even more seriously by events and changes in the atmosphere. We must address many complicated issues and answer many difficult questions about the behavior of the atmosphere and its effects on the people of our planet.

An Ancient Science

Aristotle is considered the father of meteorology. His book Meteorologica, written around 340 B.C., was the first major study of the atmosphere. Although some of Aristotle's ideas about rain, hailstorms, and other kinds of weather were accurate, many were not. Like other thinkers of his time, he believed that logic and reason alone could lead to truth. He did not think it was necessary to observe the details of the natural world in order to understand it.

Many centuries later, natural philosophers, as scientists were called in the early years of modern science, realized that speculation and logical arguments alone could not produce real understandings of nature. To understand things that happened in the world around them, it was necessary to measure, record, and analyze them. But for a very long time, the only features of the weather that could be measured were wind direction and rainfall. The thermometer was invented around A.D. 1600, and the barometer, which measures atmospheric pressure, came a few years later. Over the next 200 years, devices were developed for measuring wind speed, humidity, and other important qualities of the atmosphere. Scientists used these instruments to record the long-term trends that are known as climate. However, they still did not understand the day-to-day behavior of thunderstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes, and other weather phenomena.

Meteorology Matures

By the mid-1800s, meteorologists began to realize that clouds, winds, and rain at a particular place are produced by large weather systems that grow and change as they move across the face of the earth. However, this knowledge was not very useful as long as weather information could travel no faster than the weather itself. Then the telegraph was invented, allowing weather reports to be sent out almost instantly. Future weather over much of the United States and Europe was predicted by watching storms develop and assuming that they would move eastward. In the early 1900s, a group of Norwegian meteorologists began to study weather systems by applying basic laws of physics to the behavior of the atmosphere. Their approach, based on the movements of huge cold and warm air masses and the "fronts" where they meet, is the foundation of modern weather forecasting.

In the early 1940s, World War II brought great advances in meteorology. Large-scale military land, sea, and air campaigns were highly dependent on weather over vast regions from the North Atlantic to the South Pacific. University meteorology departments grew rapidly as the military services sent cadets to be trained as weather officers. The military also supported scientific research on weather and climate. Wartime technological developments such as radar proved to be valuable meteorological observing systems.

Meteorologists have developed many more new tools and techniques for observing and studying the atmosphere since World War II. They probe the violent cores of thunderstorms with radar and high-performance aircraft, and they use satellites to observe hurricanes and other major weather systems. They develop numerical models-sets of equations that represent atmospheric processes-and run them on supercomputers to analyze and predict the behavior of the atmosphere on every scale from the formation of raindrops to the circulation of the atmosphere over the entire earth.

More than 2,000 years ago, Greek philosophers looked at the sky and tried to understand what was happening there. Today, the ancient science of meteorology has matured. It is at the cutting edge of research, seeking answers to basic questions about the world around us and working to develop applications that are critically important to our lives and the lives of our children and grandchildren.

WHAT IS A METEOROLOGIST?

When we hear the word "meteorologist," we often think of the person on the television screen who tells us about tomorrow's high and low temperatures and precipitation. Many radio and television weathercasters are professional meteorologists, but others are reporters who are passing on information provided by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. A meteorologist can be defined as a person with specialized education "who uses scientific principles to explain, understand, observe, or forecast the earth's atmospheric phenomena and/or how the atmosphere affects the earth and life on the planet." This education usually includes a bachelor's or higher degree from a college or university. Many meteorologists have degrees in physics, chemistry, mathematics, and other fields. The broader term "atmospheric science" often is used to describe the combination of meteorology and other branches of physical science that are involved in studying the atmosphere.

WHAT DO METEOROLOGISTS DO?

Meteorologists do many things, some of which may surprise you. They work in atmospheric research, teaching, weather forecasting, and other kinds of applied meteorology.

Atmospheric Research

Many research meteorologists are seeking answers to the questions that are scattered through this booklet. Here are some examples:

· Atmospheric scientists are working to assess the threat of global warming by collecting and analyzing past and present data on worldwide temperature trends. They use the biggest and fastest supercomputers that are available to simulate past changes in climate as well as basic atmospheric processes that are occurring today. They are trying to clear up many uncertainties about how changes in water vapor, clouds, and snow might feed back into the greenhouse effect and alter the warming trend. They also are studying interactions among the atmosphere and the oceans, the polar ice caps, and the earth's plants and animals. These studies are part of a growing field that is known as global change research or earth systems science.

· Several atmospheric research groups have studied microbursts with radar, instrumented aircraft, and other research tools.

· Meteorologists are collaborating with atmospheric chemists and computer modelers to study the sources, transport, and chemical changes in pollutants that are causing serious regional air quality problems in different regions.

Research meteorologists often work closely with scientists in basic physical disciplines such as chemistry, physics, and mathematics as well as with oceanographers, hydrologists, and researchers in other branches of environmental science. Mathematicians and computer scientists help meteorologists design computer models of atmospheric processes. Meteorologists and oceanographers work together to study many important ocean-atmosphere interactions. Research meteorologists work with biologists to try to understand how plants and animals interact with the atmosphere and with political scientists and economists to study the potential effects of global warming on our society and the world.

Weather Forecasting

Forecasting has always been at the heart of meteorology, and many young people have been drawn to the profession by the challenge of forecasting a natural event and seeing that forecast affect the lives of thousands of people. Meteorologists who have worked in the field of forecasting for the last 30 years or so have seen exciting advances in their ability to predict the weather. Weather forecasting involves many people in many countries because the systems that bring us our weather are hundreds of miles in extent and move across huge regions of the earth's surface as they grow and change. National Weather Service forecasts help the general public and large special-interest groups such as the aviation and agriculture industries. Private forecasting organizations also serve these groups as well as clients with very specific needs for highly specialized forecasts. They take on tasks such as short-term, small-scale snow forecasts for city public works managers who need to know how many snowplows to put on the streets in various neighborhoods when a winter storm is on the way. Private forecasters work for commodities traders who are concerned about the effects of weather on crop production and prices. They forecast the weather for athletic events such as professional football games and golf tournaments. They keep gas and electric companies informed about impending hot spells or cold waves that will put heavy demands on generating plants and transmission systems. They provide local weather forecasts to many radio and television stations that do not employ their own meteorologists.

Other Applications

Meteorologists could provide a variety of services to industries and other organizations. Some are consulting meteorologists with their own companies and others worked for corporations. Meteorologists help planners and contractors locate and design airports, factories and many other kinds of construction projects. They provide climatological information for heating and air conditioning engineers. They testify as expert witnesses in court cases that involve the weather. Over the past 10 years or so, the fastest growing specialty of meteorology has been computer processing of weather information. Private companies have developed computerized information systems to provide specialized weather data and displays. They could produce many of the colorful graphics that you see on television screens and newspaper pages.

Teaching

Atmospheric science education at the college and university level has grown tremendously in recent years in developing countries. In addition to classroom teaching, many university atmospheric scientists direct research that graduate students are performing to earn their degrees. Many institutions offer a major in meteorology or atmospheric science, while others provide atmospheric science courses to supplement related science and engineering fields or as part of a broader educational curricula. Some colleges and universities offer courses in global change and earth systems science. In high schools and lower grades, atmospheric science usually is taught as part of other natural science courses. Training in meteorology is good preparation for a career as a science teacher at any level.

Retrieved from American Meteorological Society's Website but edited some

Nepal’s Approach and Swedish policies to combat Climate Change

2008-09-04T23:55:00.001-07:00

Nepal (South Asia)                                                            Sweden (Northern Europe)Latitude: 26°22’ to 30°27’N                                                 62° 00' North
Longitude: 80°04’ to 88°12’E                                               15° 00' East
Population: 23.2 million                                                         8.9 million
Total Area: 56,812 sq.miles                                                   173,730 sq miles

Background

Humanity and the eco-system are in increasing threat to climate change due to anthropogenic emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere was recognized by the global community with the adoption of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in June 1992. As far as possible, though a Non-Annex I Party to UNFCCC, Nepal has realized the obligation to the convection and is making effort towards reducing emissions of GHGs likes to participate and cooperate in all possibilities within the Framework Convention in international and regional activities dealing this Climate Change issue.

Nepal has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Being a developing country it is more vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to its high dependence on climate-sensitive sectors like glaciers, agriculture and forestry, and its low financial adaptive capacity Human induced climate change is already taking place, showing its effects and certain to proceed in future decades. Annual GHG emission of Nepal is about 0.025% with less than 0.4% of the world population which is negligibly small. Nepal’s vulnerability to damage from climate change due to increasing temperatures are more in high mountain areas as glaciers and snow fields will recede and may even disappear, reducing Nepal’s dry season river water source. This will impact irrigation and drinking water supply as well as reliability of hydroelectricity. Furthermore, retreating glaciers often leave behind growing glacier lakes that can break through terminal moraines causing catastrophic floods. There is likely shift in monsoon precipitation patterns that will threaten current agricultural practices, in addition to threaten infrastructure. Biodiversity, especially in mountain areas, are vulnerable to changing temperature and moisture patterns due to restriction in migration of species.

Nepal’s Strategies for Environment problems

Nepal has prepared its Inventory of Greenhouse Gases on the twelve month period beginning July 1994 and ending June 1995 in line with the Revised IPCC guidelines of 1996 were followed as the methodological basis for estimating GHG emissions and sinks while making the First Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Nepal has enforced a variety of strategies and have to imply different policies owing the long term climatic change affects.9th and 10th Plan has emphasized several alternative energy sources to reduce the domestic use of wood and fossil fuels with more use of hydropower and bio-gas. Besides, policies has been implemented to import Euro-1 standard vehicles and banned in registration of two stroke vehicles to increase the efficiency of the transport sector and reduce pollution from this sector. Now there is specification of Ambient air quality standard and different monitoring stations (PM10, TSP, NO2, SO2, Benzene) functioning 24hrs daily. As forests are important carbon sink and important natural eco-system, Local Community Forests (Forest Act 1993) have to manage under sustainable forest management principle. Besides these, National Parks, non-Hunting Areas and Wildlife Sanctuaries comprising 18% of total land areas has declared as conservation forests and various measures have been employed to protect the conservation forests. Since the sources of water have to be protected; the plan should also pay attention to the protection of the upper watershed in the country as Climate Change mitigation. A policy should link construction of tube well in Kathmandu and Terai region to monitor indiscrimination of ground water. Particular attentions should be placed on breeding strong drought/paste/diseases resistant varieties and the development of measures for soil and water conservation. It is also essential that adequate fund needs to be provided for conducting research to address the Climate Change in agriculture.

Swedish Polices and Efforts

According to Swedish national policies and its efforts to contribute to an international future climate regime post 2012, Climate Change is the major environmental and political challenges which reflected both in. Sweden has to set an example by decreasing GHGs by four percent lower than in 1990 from combine proactive climate policies and economic growth. Sweden has one of the lowest emissions levels per capita among industrialized countries and already lowered GHGs by seven percent in 2005 than in 1990 with economic growth of 36%.

In 1991, Sweden introduced carbon dioxide tax to limit climate impact in a socially and economically efficient manner. Swedish climate policy is based on the use of economic instruments. Hydro and nuclear power, largely carbon neutral, are means for production of electricity and has a system of green electricity certificates to stimulate the production of electricity from renewable sources, such as wind power, hydro power and combined heat and power production (CHP) based on biofuels. To reduce emissions from transportation investments are made to research and development of green cars and has introduced a rebate is granted to purchase a new green car. Sweden has a system of green electricity certificates to stimulate the production of electricity from renewable sources, such as wind power, hydro power and combined heat and power production (CHP) based on biofuels.

Without having broader and deeper cooperation with business and industry, the research community as well as the political sphere it is impossible to mitigate the impact of climate change so different initiatives like setting up of a Commission on Sustainable Development, a Scientific Council on Climate Issues and a Climate Committee to review climate policy has been established by Sweden to increase involvement of the entire society. In 2008, Government of Sweden has planned to produce climate policy bill to the parliament as one scheme.

Sweden works to achieve national climate policy for the national target for the period 2008-2012 and to shed light on what additional action may be required. With a population of some 9 million, Swedish contribution to annual global emissions of greenhouse gases is nearly negligible. Therefore, Sweden believes that international co-operation is of decisive importance in the effort to combat climate change.

In an informal meeting in Riksgransen on June 11-14, 2007, the Swedish Government along with some 27 environment ministers has discussed on climate change and a new climate regime where Sweden suggested measures to all countries particularly for poor and vulnerable developing countries;
· More ambitious and legally-binding emission reduction targets for all developed countries;
· Enhanced mitigation actions by developing countries;
· Further action on the deforestation issue;
· Managing unintended consequences of adaptation and mitigation policies;
· Technology development, diffusion and commercialization, in order to support mitigation, adaptation, and more generally, decarbonisation of our economies.
· Investment, incentives, financing, capacity-building, awareness and education.

Conclusion

Everyday human induced and natural GHGs are increasing in the atmosphere. The industrial countries emits enormous amount of GHGs from their industries every hour and blame the developing nations for deforestation and burning of firewood. The global temperature would rise between 1.5° to 4.5° Celsius by sometime in 21st Century (IPCC 2001) and UN has declared that the world has only eight years left to save climate(Climate Today, May 8,2007).

Both Nepal and Sweden produce negligible rate of GHGs but divergence in most of the aspects like climate, geography, development etc. Sweden is serious in making and following policies both in the short and long term. Sweden’s policies are significant in Nepalese context as well though strategies and policies exist already. Nepal desires to acquire support equally from social and political sector to build capacity to respond to the problem. The political sustainability highly alters the policies to combat climate change else the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Mitigation Options remain unconvinced, though doubts and argues continue in the timing and precise extent. Nepalese Government has to set out obligatory contribution to international efforts like Swedish policies to address Climate Change issues. Until Nepal lacks the capacity to address Climate Change problems, discussion on sustainable environment management remain insignificant.

References:
1. GoN/ National Planning Commission, Three Years Interim Plan (2064/65-2066/67), Ashar 2064, Nepal.
2. HMGN/NPC/MOPE 2003, Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal, 32 Pages
3. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, June 2007, Government of Nepal, “Melting Ice: A Hot Topic?”, The Journal of Agriculture and Environment,Vol:8.
4. MOPE/UNEP, June 2004, First Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Nepal.
5. Shukla, P.R., Sharma, Subodh K, Ramana P Venkata,2002,Climate Change and India, Issues, Concerns and Opportunities, Tata McGraw-Hill publishing company limited, New Delhi .
6. Sweden, Ministry of the Environment, Swedish policies to combat climate change, Memorandum, July 2007.

Carbon Sequestration of Forest

2008-09-04T23:37:00.000-07:00

The climate is changing globally due to huge concentration of Greenhouse Gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) in particular, that traps outgoing long wave infra-red radiations into the atmosphere. Such gases contribute to higher global temperatures that could increase the frequency of extreme weather events and have a reflective impact on human health, glaciers, sea levels, natural habitats, and agriculture. Taking such cases in account, Kyoto Protocol was prepared in December 1997that recognizes human-induced carbon sequestration as a way of meeting legally binding greenhouse gas emissions targets. This protocol specifically point out emissions from different sources and related removals by sinks resulting from direct, human-made land-use change and forest-related activities (deforestation, reforestation, and afforestation) undertaken since 1990. Forest sinks are particularly attractive, since no new technologies need to be developed and forests also generate other social benefits.

Forests plays a critical role in climate change by sequestering, or storing, large quantities of carbon (by absorbing CO2) as they grow and releasing it when they die. Photosynthesis and respiration are the crucial mechanism by which forests accumulate and release carbon. A growing tree absorbs CO2 from the air during the process of photosynthesis, uses solar energy to store carbon in its roots, stems, branches, and foliage. When trees decay and die, they become a carbon source, releasing more carbon than they can absorb. And when forests are harvested, burned, or cleared by humans, or in the event of a natural disturbance such as fire or disease, some of the carbon stored in the trees’ cells is released into the atmosphere. Stored carbon, however, can be transferred into forest products—for example, wood used for lumber, furniture, and other durable goods can seize its carbon for decades or even centuries in case of well maintained.

One that occupies carbon is called a “sink” and that releases carbon is called a “source.” Shifts of carbon over time from one stock to another—from the atmosphere to the forest, for example—are referred as carbon “fluxes.” Over time, carbon may be transferred from one stock to another. For example, burning of fossil fuel moves carbon from fossil fuel deposits to the atmosphere. Physical processes also gradually convert some atmospheric carbon into the ocean stock. Biological growth in plants fixes atmospheric carbon in cell tissues, thereby transforming carbon from the atmosphere to the biotic system.

The total carbon supply of an old-growth forest may be large as they experiencing little net growth that means changes in that storage are small or negligible. In case young, fast-growing forests the stock may be small while the fluxes may be significant. There is potential for agricultural crops and grasses to act as a sink and sequester carbon but it appears to be limited due to their short life and limited biomass accumulations. Even so, agricultural and grassland soils have sufficient potential to sequester carbon.

The well known approach of carbon sequestration is probably the role of forests besides oceans, and carbon storage arrangement in forests is large enough that forests offer the high probability of sequestering considerable amounts of extra carbon in relatively short periods, such as decades. However, during burning of forest carbon release fairly quickly.

In a forest ecosystem there are five storages of carbon. These are as follows;

· Above-ground biomass(canopy),
· Below-ground biomass,
· Litter,
· Dead wood, and
· Soils organic carbon
In forests, carbon is sequestered in the process of plant growth as carbon is captured in plant cell formation and oxygen is released. As the forest biomass experiences growth, the carbon held captive in the forest stock increases. Concurrently, plants grow on the forest floor and add to this carbon store. In due course, branches, leaves, and other materials fall to the forest floor and may store carbon until they decompose. Moreover, forest soils may sequester some part of the decomposing plant litter in the course of root/soil interactions. In addition, carbon may be sequestered for extensive periods in long-lived wood products resulting from forest harvests.

The change of forest from one ecological form to another will generate large carbon surges, forests can be a carbon source or a sink. It is important to evaluate carefully exactly what is happening to the carbon as the forest changes to establish the forest’s sink/source contribution. Seeing that the forest as a source net carbon released is due to biomass reductions from fire, tree decomposition, or logging. In the case of decomposition or fire, forest carbon is released into the atmosphere. However, the forest may again become a carbon sink as it is restored through forest re-growth.

Widely on earth, wood is consumed as a source of energy and burning wood releases carbon into the atmosphere. Where the fuel wood is taken from a forest and re-growth occurs, no net carbon is emitted. Furthermore, to the extent that biofuels are produced sustainably and used as a substitute for fossil fuel energy, fossil fuel emissions are avoided and no new net carbon emissions are created, since biofuels re-growth offsets the initial biofuels emissions,

The terms Deforestation, Reforestation and Afforestation are often used in case of forest management so to the carbon sequestration management scheme. It is in the state of deforestation when forest land is cleared and reforestation does not take place. Usually, land clearing is connected with the everlasting conversion of forest lands to other uses, for instance croplands, ground or urban land. Once forest is changed to some other purposes, there is a net loss of carbon in the normal storage since most other land uses will sequester less carbon than the forest. Under such situations, net carbon transfers occur. If the place is cleared and the vegetation burned, most of the carbon is freed into the atmosphere. However, to the extent that the vegetation is converted into long-lived wood products or substituted for fossil fuel energy, only a part of the carbon in the forest will be a net release into the atmosphere.

Even if reforestation typically refers to the practice of reestablishing a forest on a site that has been recently harvested, it also may refer to the reestablishment of forest on a site that has been cleared for some period of time. In either case, reforestation acts as a carbon sink since it results in the build-up of carbon stocks in the recently established biomass.

The formation of a forest on land never forested or not forested for a very long time is called afforestation. Often the distinction between afforestation and reforestation shapes as the period during which the forest has been missing from the land extend. Afforestation arises when forests are established on grasslands never previously forested. Rehabilitation of different lands into forest will consume additional amount of carbon in trees and other components of the forest ecosystem.

In tropical regions, it is common that natural or human-induced conversion of land into reforestation of commercial timber harvests. When such harvests are accompanied by reforestation, the land-clearing effects of the harvest on the forest carbon stocks are offset, in the long term, by carbon sequestration and the build-up of carbon stocks in the newly regenerated forest. The long-standing alternation in carbon storage will depend directly on the type and scale of forest harvested and regenerated. In some cases, second-growth forest will not sequester as much carbon as the original forest. For instance, when old-growth forest is harvested, the replacement forest typically will involve less volume, especially if it is being managed for timber harvests. However, when storage in long-lived wood products is considered, the net carbon of the managed replacement forest and its products will more closely approach, and perhaps exceed, that of the initial forest over a longer period.

Forest management can contribute to carbon sequestration by promoting forest growth and biomass accumulation. Additionally, management can choose to widen the harvest rotation, thereby increasing the average forest stock and hence the average carbon sequestered in a forest

Finally, natural disasters can affect forest stocks and often result in forests becoming a carbon source—at least for a time. Large fraction of the world’s forests is subject to natural instability that occurs occasionally as part of natural cycles. Forest are subject to substantial carbon-releasing disturbances, particularly in the form of wildfires, that often occur after the forest is first disturbed by other forces, such as drought, disease, or pests. Natural disasters may discharge large amounts of carbon in a short period of time. On the other hand, where land is not changed to other uses, the forest classically re-establishes itself and again begins to hold carbon. In many forests, natural disturbance systems create a cyclic model of growth (sequestration), disturbance (emission), and re-growth (sequestration) over a period of years.

In case of Nepal, forests are the most important natural resources after water. Majority of people use forest products as firewood, food, fodder, timber and medicines. Wide-ranging utilization of and growing demands for forest products have led to its declining both in area and quality. Further, Global Warming may cause forest damage through migration towards the polar region, changes in their composition, extinction of species etc. The outcome of this situation could affect directly not only the environment of Nepal but also lives of majority of the people

According to Holdridge model there are 39 vegetation zones out of which Nepal has 15 types under the existing (CO2) condition. There would be only 12 types under 2xCO2 climatic condition as depicted by the model. In the same way tropical wet forest and warm temperate rain forest would vanish, and cool temperate vegetation would turn into warm temperate vegetation under double CO2 condition. As per the IPCC Guidelines, though Nepal lies among the tropical countries with six forest categories namely wet lands, moist with short dry season, moist with long dry season, dry, montane moist, and montane dry, the study has found only three of them as relevant to Nepal

The Department of Forest Research and Survey (DFRS, 1999) has estimated at 4,268.8 thousand hectares of forest area in 1994/95, which is about 29 % of the entire territory of the country. The forest cover in 1978/79 was about 5,616.8 thousand hectares, covering around 38 % of total territory of Nepal (LRMP, Land Utilization Report, 1986). The dissimilarity has been cited for deforestation or reduction rate of forests, which amounts to 1.7 % between the periods of 1978/79 and 1994/95. In total 1,348 thousand hectares of forest land i.e. more than 9 percent of the total forest covers had been transformed to the other land-use/land cover categories. During that phase, shrub land doubled from 689.9 thousand hectares (4.7 %) to 1,559.2 thousand hectares (10.6 %). Combining the forests and shrub lands (woody vegetation) as one, yearly about 29 thousand hectares of woody vegetation areas can be found converted to non-woody vegetation areas. This is a clear indication that forest resources were subjected to exploitation beyond its sustainable growth and use.

About 80 % of total energy consumption in Nepal is obtained from fuel wood, of which about 63 % comes from forestland (WECS, 2001). Of the total fuel wood consumption, only 27 % is estimated to have been extracted on a sustainable basis, and the remaining from over- cutting.. The actual annual growth rate is below the standard growth rate and varies from 0.59 to 2.34 tons dry matter per hectare per year (WECS, 2001).

Indigenous practices like Agro-forestry in the hilly region of Nepal and private plantations in Terai and community forest management have resulted in positive impact on tree-stock. Especially the fodder species and plantation for timber in the farmlands and in the non-cultivated land are common. Agriculture Census of Nepal (1991) has revealed that the woodlands and forest have increased from 15,000 hectares in 1981 to 109,000 hectares in 1991 (Environment Statistics, 1998) in private lands. On considering the average number of 408 trees per hectare from National Forest Inventory (NFI), it is estimated that 300 million trees exist outside the forest area in Nepal. Annual carbon removal due to the growing stock is obtained by multiplying the carbon content factor by net biomass growth. Calculation shows that about 14,737 Gigagram of CO2was removed from the atmosphere due to the growing stock in Nepal’s forest.

Biomass stock per hectare in Nepal’s forestland varies from 115 to 178 tons (WECS 2001). Entirely, about 14,006 kilo tons of biomass are removed from the different forestlands and other lands by cutting the trees. In Nepal, commercial harvest is not in practice. Forestland, in general, is changed in two-step process, the first from forestland to shrub land and the second from shrub to cultivation. The biomass in shrub land after conversion is assumed to be 16.1 tons per ha (WECS, 2001) whereas average biomass in the cultivation land is assumed to be 10 tons per ha (IPCC, 1996).

All the biomass removed from the forest is not consumed as fuel wood. Out of the total biomass loss from the forest clearing, 20 % is estimated for the purpose of using them for timbers (DFRS, 1993) that last up to few decades. During the period of 1978/79 to 1994/95, altogether 1.3 million hectare of forest was cleared (74 thousands hectare per year). In total 14 million tons of wood was removed from forest clearing releasing more than 18,547 Gigagram of CO2 to the atmosphere.

Conversion of forests to other land-use type affects the soil carbon. Forest soils are rich in organic matter than the land used for other purposes. Once deforestation occurs, the soils gradually lose its carbon content over the time. In such condition, temperature also disturbs the process of decomposition. In the higher altitude area (cold climate) the decay process is slower than in the Terai and Siwaliks regions (tropical climate). There is no thorough information of soil carbon content. Land system map prepared by LRMP has estimated organic matter content in the various lands and physiographic regions of Nepal. Soil carbon release estimation, as per IPCC Guidelines, is found altogether 23.71 Terragram (23.71 million tons) during the period from 1974 to 1994 (20 years) which is due to change in land-use from high carbon content soils (forest/shrub soils) to low carbon content soils (cultivation).

For a number of countries, carbon sequestration through forestation or retarded deforestation may be a cost-effective approach to contributing to reduced global atmospheric concentrations of CO2. So a variety of sustainable management approaches can improve carbon sequestration in existing forests. Allowing trees to grow for longer periods between harvests, planting longer-lived tree species (e.g., red oak, white pine, red spruce, hemlock), and setting aside wider buffer zones around streams and rivers have all been shown to increase carbon storage in forests.

References:
1. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, June 2007, Government of Nepal, “Melting Ice: A Hot Topic?”, The Journal of Agriculture and Environment,Vol:8.
2. MOPE/UNEP, June 2004, First Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Nepal.
3. Union of Concerned Scientists Citizens and Scientists for Environmental Solutions Catalyst,Vol.3 No.2 Fall 2004,http://www.ucsusa.org/
4. US Department of Energy, Office of Science,Science for America’s Future, http://www.science.doe.gov/
5. Wikipedia,Carbon capture and storage, Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage

GREENHOUSE EFFECT TO CLIMATE CHANGE

2008-08-19T02:22:00.000-07:00

SOME MILESTONE PROGRESS

In 1820, Frenchman Fourier has described Greenhouse effect for the first time as, "THE ATMOSPHERE acts like a hot house, because it lets through the lights rays of the sun but remains the dark from the ground."

In 1861, Greenhouse gases, water-vapor and carbon-dioxide, were first recognized by Tyndall in England who measured the absorption of heat radiation by water-vapor and carbon-dioxide.

In 1896, Swede Arrhenius tried to correlate change in surface temperature of the Earth with changes in atmosphere CO2 to explain the occurrence of ice age.

In 1903, Arrhenius noted that industry might put out enough CO2 to actually warm the Earth.

In 1938, Englishman Callendar published a paper on the artificial production of CO2 and its influence on climate where he tried to explain the temperature increases that were occurring at the time.

In 1940, Temperature trend has changed, the northern hemisphere started to cool and so Callander's work was no longer immediately relevant.

In 1955, Concerns for scientific community begun. The Hungarian-American von Neuman in a popular article posed the question "Can we survive technology?"in context of climate change.

In 1959The American scientist Plass purposed the Carbon-dioxide Theory of Climate Change.

Mid-1960s, political level discussion started.

In 1970s, the tone changed and global cooling issues arises focusing on aerosol emissions from industry and CFCs and its potential to destroy the layer of the stratospheric ozone were identified.

In 1974, Manabe presents first computer models of climate change which altered many scientists to the fact that human activities could also affect climate on a global scale.

In 1979, First World Climate Conference in Geneva, Climate Warming once again came into focus.

In 1980, Expert meeting in Villach, Austria; UNEP/WMO/ICSU remarked that CO2 induced climate change indeed was a major issue.

In 1983, Us Environment Protection agency (EPA) concluded that only a ban on coal-use, instituted before 2000, would effectively slow down the rate of global temperature changed and delay at 2°C increases until 2055.

In 1985, International Scientific Community meets at Villach in Austria. Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) had commissioned a review, resulting in the report 'The Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change and Ecosystems", which clearly establish increases in GHGs as an international problem.

In 1987, further scientific meeting along with accompanying press coverage gave the issue world-wide attention as discovery of OZONE HOLE over Antarctica and international agreements to limit emissions of CFCs.

In 1988, Toronto Conference on Changing Atmosphere, it started formulating political goals, resulted in a call for a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by the year 2005, as an initial global goal. Nothing more than a call.

In 1988, Establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

In 1990, the IPCC adopted its first assessment report on 30 August 1990 in Sundsvall, Sweden..
In 1992 IPCC Supplementary Reports.
In 1994 IPCC Special Report.
In 1992 Adoption of the UNFCCC.
In 1994 Entry into force of the UNFCCC.
In 1995 COP-1 and every year Conferences of the Parties (COP) meeting will take place in different places.
In 1995 Second IPCC Assessment Report.
In 1997 COP-3, the Berlin Mandate process led to the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol.
In 2001 Third IPCC Assessment Report.
In 2007 Fourth IPCC Assessment Report.
In 2007 December Australia signed KYOTO PROTOCOL.

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